Kosovo and Trump 2.0

In May 1940 Great Britain, under the leadership of Sir Winston Churchill, set up an all party coalition government, ostensibly to navigate Britain and her Allies through the Second World War. Domestic party politics was, by and large, suspended in the national interest. 

Now, 80 years after end of that conflict, war remains an unwelcome part of our lives in Europe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its ongoing hybrid war across Europe and its strategy of undermining democracy in the Western Balkans, largely through its proxy in Belgrade, are all indicators that long term peace and stability is a long way off.

And with a dramatic change of direction by the new administration in Washington, the geopolitical shift to a more transactional world order, dominated by authoritarian leaders intent on getting their way, must be a wake up call to anyone in a position of influence in Kosovo. Put simply, things are no longer going to be the same. At least not for the next three and a half years.

The world has changed in front of our eyes and so we must recognise that change and react to it. These are times of high jeopardy, not just within Kosovo’s borders, but beyond them too.

And this is the backdrop to Kosovo’s current political stalemate.

Whilst I am not suggesting an all party coalition government is formed in Kosovo, bringing together representatives from all parties to deal with the most urgent domestic and international issues, time is not on Pristina’s side to find a solution.

Having witnessed Washington’s approach to international relations and foreign policy over the last two months, especially the treatment of decades’ old allies, it’s anyone’s guess what ‘deal’ Trump will attempt to impose on the Western Balkans. 

It is only a matter of time before the Kosovo/Serbia situation hits the top of the Oval Office’s to-do list. If Trump’s boasts of ending the war in Ukraine come to nothing and they walk away from negotiations, and with the war in Gaza no closer to a conclusion, it would make sense for the President to seek another foreign policy success to show how effective he is on the world stage. And with scant regard for the EU’s position if Washington’s approach to Ukraine is anything to go by, the outcome for Kosovo may not be a welcome one.

Without a functioning government with which to engage, the US will simply pursue a policy of self interest. Under those circumstances, the scales are likely to tip in Serbia’s favour.

Kosovo is rightly proud of its hard earned democratic values, but I believe now is the moment for its elected representatives to demonstrate three key qualities; pragmatism, compromise and unity. 

Political differences need to be put aside in the national interest, as they were in London in 1940.

And the world is watching.